[Week #40] 26th September – 30th September Singapore Market Technical Outlook


SG SESSION (To Retest 2,865 Gap Resistance Level)

The Straits Times Index (STI) ended the week with a gain of +1% (+29.5 points), recovering from the major support at 2,790 as highlighted last week (http://singaporestockstrading.com/2016/09/18/week-39-19th-september-23rd-september-singapore-us-market-technical-outlook/).

At the current junction, STI has been resisted by the window resistance (gap) at the closing level of 2,865 level but it is likely to see a retest on Monday, based on the strong price action at the closing session of last friday.

Upon the violation of this window resistance, STI is likely to inch towards 2,880 major resistance level. The support to watch for a major breakdown is at 2,790 support level.



5 things to watch on the economic calendar this week (an extract and summary of investing.com)

1. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks (Wednesday)

After holding off on a rate hike last week, the Fed is keeping itself in the market’s sights, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision Wednesday at 10:00AM ET (14:00GMT).

On Thursday, Yellen is due to speak via videoconference at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City at 4:00PM ET (20:00GMT).

Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy. Last week, the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged but hinted that an increase could come in December if the job market continued to improve.


2. ECB President Draghi Delivers Comments (Monday)

ECB President Mario Draghi is due to testify before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels on Monday at 15:05GMT (11:05AM ET).

On Wednesday, Draghi is scheduled to speak about current developments in the euro area at the German Bundestag, in Berlin at 14:30GMT (10:30AM ET).

Investors will be looking for indications that the ECB is moving towards boosting monetary stimulus at its December meeting.


3. BOJ Governor Kuroda Remarks in Focus (Thursday)

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda comments take on extra importance after the Japanese central bank announced that it will shift policy to targeting interest rates on Japanese government bonds as the focus of its massive stimulus program, abandoning its target of increasing base money.


4. OPEC Meeting (Monday-Wednesday)

According to market experts, chances that the meeting would yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared minimal. Instead, most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor the market and possibly postpone freeze talks to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran’s refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.


5. U.S. Presidential Debate (Monday)

With just over six weeks until Election Day in the U.S., the market will turn its attention to the first televised U.S. presidential debate Monday night.

Market participants are mostly expecting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to win the presidency and have not factored in the implications of a victory for Donald Trump. The idea of Trump in the White House is a worrying one for some investors who balk at his populist, unpredictable style.

Recent polls have shown a tightening race, with Clinton’s once-comfortable lead narrowing sharply. The latest NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll gives Clinton a 6 point lead, 43% to Trump’s 37%, among likely voters.


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