[Week #20] May 9th – May 13th Singapore & US Market Outlook

2016May-Straits Times-800x600

SG SESSION (Critical Support Broken, Bearish Wedge Formation Breakdown Still In Play)

The Straits Times Index (STI) retracesa further -3.8% (-107.72 points) during the week, violating the major resistance at 2,780 level highlighted last week. The sell down has been alerted with the Bearish Diivergence observed since 22nd April on both MACD and RSI indicator. At the current junction, STI is still playing out its Bearish Wedge formation breakdown. Do note that STI is trading just above its support range as highlighted in the chart above.

The levels to watch for the week are 2,780 support turned resistance level, and support to watch is the window support at 2,710 – 2,680 level.

2016May-S&P 500-800x600

US SESSION (Bullish Reversal Candlestick Signal, awaiting confirmation)

The S&P500 retraces a further -0.4% (-8.16 points) during the week. At the current junction, S&P 500 closes on friday with a Bullish Reversal Candlestick Pattern, awaiting for market confirmation for a potential rally ahead.

The levels to watch for the week is 2,115 immediate major horizontal resistance level. The immediate major support zone to watch is 2,030 level for the short term uptrending momentum to remain intact.

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5 things to watch on the economic calendar this week

 

1. U.S. April retail sales report (Friday)

The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales rebounded 0.7% last month, after falling 0.4% in March. Core sales are forecast to increase 0.5%, after rising 0.1% a month earlier.

 

2. Fed speakers

Market players will pay close attention to a number of speeches from Federal Reserve officials during the week to judge the balance of opinion among policymakers on the prospect of further rate hikes.

The Fed speakers start Monday with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are all due to speak throughout the day.

Tuesday sees New York Fed President William Dudley, the official viewed as most closely aligned with Fed Chair Janet Yellen, take the stage.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Kansas City Fed President Esther George will speak at public events on Thursday, followed by San Francisco Fed’s Williams on Friday.

 

3. Chinese trade data (Sunday)

Exports slumped 1.8% from a year earlier, worse than forecasts for a decline of 0.1%, while imports dropped 10.9%, compared to expectations for a fall of 5.0%. That left China with a surplus of $45.6 billion last month, the General Administration of Customs said.

The Asian nation will also publish data on April consumer and producer price inflation on Tuesday, followed by reports on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales late on Friday.

 

4. Euro zone Q1 GDP (Friday)

The consensus forecast is that the report will show the economy grew 0.6% in the first three months of 2016, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and after expanding 0.3% in the final quarter of 2015.

Germany will release its individual report at 06:00GMT. The euro zone’s largest economy is forecast to grow 0.6% in the first quarter after increasing 0.3% in the preceding quarter.

 

5. Bank of England “Super Thursday” 

Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 90 to keep rates on hold at a record low 0.5%.

Expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England have been pushed back to early-2017 due to a recent spate of weaker than expected data and amid uncertainty over a referendum on whether or not Britain should stay in the European Union.

The economic data above is an extract of http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/5-things-to-watch-on-the-economic-calendar-this-week-400617

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